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Horned Frogs were so depleted in the spring
11-07-2019, 05:33 AM
Příspěvek: #1
Horned Frogs were so depleted in the spring
West Virginia is in a year of transition. The Mountaineers have a new coaching staff, lost more experience than just about any school in the country, and there are not very high expectations for Year One of the Neal Brown Era. That includes ESPN s Football Power Index, which makes WVU the favorite in only two games this year, and projects the Mountaineers to go, on average, 4.6 7.4 on the season.

Per ESPN, The Football Power Index FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The Index gives the Mountaineers a 0.2 chance of winning the Big 12 Conference, and virtually zero percent chance of going undefeated. Their 1.1 FPI ranks 58th in the country, with their Strength of Schedule No. 12 in the nation. Here s a game by game look.


Photo Wesley Hitt, Getty

Chances of Beating JMU 76.7

Chances of Beating Missouri 15.2

Chances of Beating N.C. State 47.4

Thoughts The 76.7 chance of beating JMU is the lowest percentage the Mountaineers have had against an FCS team since I ve been tracking this, which shouldn t be much of a surprise. The Bulldogs are expected to be one of the top teams in the entire country in their league, while WVU is, as we explained above, trying to piece things together after a coaching change and plenty of departures.

Missouri is going to be tough. The Tigers could be on the verge of a double digit win season, even if they re ineligible for a bowl game. Playing on the road makes it an even harder task.

N.C. State is losing a lot. Almost as much as the Mountaineers. And, because of that, ESPN sees it as a virtual coin flip between the two teams.


Chances of Winning 74.1

Opponent s FPI Rank 108

Thoughts I m not sure there s been a year yet when the Mountaineers were an underdog to the Jayhawks on the FPI, but that doesn t mean they can t lose obviously . The formula actually has this percentage at about the same as beating FCS opponent JMU, although this one is on the road. Kansas has a lot of questions on their roster, including who will play quarterback this fall. New Head Coach Les Miles should bring in better talent Jerry West Jersey, but it s asking a lot for him to turn the perennial doormat into a contender in Year One.


Chances of Winning 34.6

Opponent s FPI Rank 24

Thoughts Texas has been back for several years now.... at least in the preseason. This time, though, it may really be true. The Longhorns lost their season opener to lowly Maryland last year, then lost back to back nailbiters to Oklahoma State and West Virginia that should have knocked them out of the Big 12 title race. Instead, they won the tiebreaker, got into the Big 12 Championship Game and then beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. It was quite a redemption for what could have been another disappointing season. It also gives Tom Herman and Co. some momentum heading into 2019, and they ll be one of the favorites for a league title this year. The one positive for WVU is that they ll have a week off before the game to prepare.


Photo Matthew Holst, Getty

Chances of Winning 34.1

Opponent s FPI Rank 26

Thoughts As much hype as Texas is getting https://www.wvubasketballjersey.com/dang...y-c-6.html, ESPN s FPI has Iowa State and Texas virtually even 26 and 24, respectively, in their rankings . That results in an almost identical chance of WVU winning the game, too. The Cyclones derailed the Mountaineers season last year, and this could be a pivotal game for West Virginia in 2019. After a tough non conference, then an early league game against Texas, this is the last home game for a month and the upcoming two games are the toughest on the schedule, per the FPI. A loss here could send the team spiraling out of postseason contention, while a win might salvage a surprising season.


Chances of Winning 6.5

Opponent s FPI Rank 6

Thoughts This is the toughest game on the schedule, per ESPN FPI. That should not shock anyone. By any metric and any expert prognostication, the Sooners are almost always going to be the toughest game on WVU s schedule. They have been for the previous three seasons, at least. Lincoln Riley has reloaded at several key positions, including quarterback, thanks to Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts. The Mountaineers will also be in Norman for this game, making it very unlikely that WVU ends this losing streak to OU in 2019.


Chances of Winning 20.8

Opponent s FPI Rank 29

Thoughts This game comes after a half bye for West Virginia. The Mountaineers have the previous weekend off, but this game will be played on a Thursday night. The extra time helps, especially with WVU traveling out to Norman a week and a half before, then having to go back out west to Waco for this contest. The Bears are ranked No. 29 in the ESPN FPI and are starting to put the right pieces on the field under Matt Rhule. He s had a little bit of time now to start building his program, so it s no surprise that we might see some results this fall.


Photo Steven Chapman https://www.wvubasketballjersey.com/bran...y-c-5.html, 247Sports

Chances of Winning 46.7

Opponent s FPI Rank 45

Thoughts The Red Raiders are losing a lot. They also lost a head coach.... or fired a head coach, that then went on to become an NFL head coach. There s a transition in Lubbock, similar to one going on in Morgantown, although Texas Tech is not searching for quite as many answers on the roster. Playing at home will help WVU, and this is the fourth most likely game that the team will win per the FPI, after only JMU 76.7 , Kansas 74.1 , and N.C. State 47.4 .


Chances of Winning 39.8

Opponent s FPI Rank 57

Thoughts ESPN s Football Power Index ranks the Mountaineers just one spot behind the Wildcats 58 to 57 , but the fact that this game is being played in Manhattan gives Kansas State about a ten percent boost in their formula. But, I don t know how any formula can really reflect what s going to happen at K State now. For the first time years and taking into account the two tenures, decades the Wildcat program will be led by a new head coach. They ll also have a new offensive coordinator, too, and he ll be attempting to resurrect an offense that finished dead last in the Big 12 Conference last year.... and then lost their best players on that side of the ball. I think it s going to be a tough year for K State, even moreso than WVU, and am a bit surprised that WVU is the underdog here.


Chances of Winning 42.2

Opponent s FPI Rank 37

Thoughts There s been a moderate amount of hype around the Cowboys this offseason, with some experts believing they are a true contender for the Big 12 this fall. I m not sure I buy it. I see a team that went 7 6 last year, lost their star quarterback, lost their brilliant offensive coordinator, and their best running back. On the other side of the ball, they were one of the worst in the country in total defense, then lost their entire four man starting defensive line. It s not going to get better with an overhaul like that. This won t be easy. Oklahoma State has plenty of playmakers, especially at wide receiver and even with last year s backup running back, Chuba Hubbard. This could be one heck of a late season shootout.

Chances of Winning 22.9

Opponent s FPI Rank 35

Thoughts The Mountaineers would have been better off had this game been played earlier in the year. TCU has some talent a lot of it, in fact but I m not sure how it all works together just yet. The Horned Frogs were so depleted in the spring by injuries that they canceled their spring game, so there wasn t much on display to really predict this upcoming season. The vast majority of those guys are back, and Gary Patterson added one of the best recruiting classes in the Big 12 in the offseason. If they can get everyone integrated and on the same page, TCU could really take off. By the end of the year, they should be there https://www.wvubasketballjersey.com/saga...y-c-4.html, which could spell trouble for a Mountaineer team that may be fighting for bowl eligibility.
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